Things Publishers Fear: #3 ~ Apple

iPad Homescreen
Creative Commons License photo credit: renatomitra

About This Series
Things Publishers Fear is an occasional series about the realities of publishing in the modern era. For the record, survival is not guaranteed, nor is it always deserved.


Apple

On the day the iPad’s availablility in the US was announced (April 3 in case you missed it) I thought it suitable to discuss Apple. What’s to fear I hear you say? Hasn’t Apple provided the fodder to defeat Amazon’s nefarious $9.99 pricing demands and with the creation of the iPad opened a whole world of possibilities for publishers? To which the simple answer is yes but the complicated answer is yes, but.

Yes
You are right, most publisher probably don’t fear Apple. In fact they have welcomed their arrival on the publishing scene, seeing them as useful counterweights to Amazon. But they are wrong. Apple presents a real problem for publishers one worthy of fear.

Yes, but!
Apple has created leverage for publishers that much is true, but is that leverage actually worth anything? Apple seems to have thrown the balance in favour of book publishers in a struggle that is really peripheral to book publishers survival, but in doing so made that struggle look more important than it was. Price, especially the price on specific forms of content (in this case the Kindle edition ebook) is not the sole factor in book publishing’s future, there is much more going on. In fact, the leverage Apple provided has blinded publishers to the larger realities of change and has been, I would argue, detrimental to the industry as a whole.

As for the iPad it is a fine looking device, but the iBooks app which Apple itself describes as:

the best way to browse, buy and read books on a mobile product. The iBookstore will feature books from the New York Times Best Seller list from both major and independent publishers, including Hachette Book Group, HarperCollins Publishers, Macmillan Publishers, Penguin Group and Simon & Schuster.

will not even be native to the product but:

will be available as a free download from the App Store in the US on April 3, with additional countries added later this year.

Competition
So, video will be native to the iPad, so will Photos, Safari, Mail, Notes and a few other applications but not iBooks. Will YouTube I wonder? Think that through folks. iBooks not native, why? Why not build it in if the product is so amazing, so intrinsic to the concept? Because Steve Jobs reckons people don’t read anymore.

I guess what he means is that the people who do read will download that app anyway and that most people simply do not consume vast numbers of books in a given year and in some senses they never did, at least not in the way that they watched television or listened to music. So why go to the bother of including it for a few die-hards who will do the work for themselves?

What he means is that books are not central to the iPad as a device, but they make for good marketing copy. In fact books, as far as Apple is concerned, are probably already fringe media and so are not vital to the success of the iPad or else iBooks would have come pre-loaded sitting there ready to download books.

The iPad is about the things that people do a lot of, watch tv and video, listen to music and surf the web. People don’t read books very much on average and so books fail the mass market test. Publishers have been so eager for an ally in the battle with Amazon they’ve ignored the fact that their ally might not really care about their industry much at all.

Binding us more
And then there is the issue that by keeping publishers obsessed with the iBookstore and app creation Apple keeps publishers locked into a closed development system of Apple OS. Which suits Apple and blinds the publishers to the real opportunity they have, and have had for some time now, and which few of them have been embracing, web based content accessible over any device with the use of a browser.

If publishers had pursued web access for the last five years it wouldn’t matter if iBooks was native, Safari would be their Trojan horse allowing readers to buy access online, bypassing Apples 30% tax. Of course the more visionary have done something like this. The O’Reilly/Pearson created Safari Books Online now has some 40 publishers and I would expect to see that kind of platform thrive in a mobile multi-media device environment. At the very least it is in a position to take advantage of web broswers as well as iPad Apps something most publishers will not.

To sum up
Apple is making mobile computing cool, easy and non-geeky. Apple is making it easy to put video, games, music, photographs and just about any form of entertainment in the hands of everyone, everywhere in a cheap and attractive package. In fact, if Google represents the reality of competition with every book ever published then Apple represents the reality of competition for every second of attention with EVERY form of entertainment imaginable. As a publisher and knowing that reading has consistently lost in a straight attention fight with video, music and mass forms of entertainment, that would create quite a bit of fear. As Laocoön might have out it: “Do not trust the Horse, Trojans. Whatever it is, I fear the Greeks even bearing gifts.”

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Things Publishers Fear: #2 ~ Google

Yay!
Creative Commons License photo credit: Max Braun

About This Series
Things Publishers Fear is an occasional series about the realities of publishing in the modern era. For the record, survival is not guaranteed, nor is it always deserved.


Google

Where to start with the fear of Google. The 12 million scanned books. Yes that will do for now!

It is not just that publishers are rightly pissed at the fact of Google’s actions (and the gall they have shown in continuing with them throughout the process of first suing and then reaching a complex and variously hated/despised/grudgingly accepted settlement) they fear the implications of Google’s actions.

Fearing the fact

When I say the fact I mean that Google has, at the very least, stretched the idea of fair use to the limit and in doing so created a tool of great value. A searchable database of all the works they can. Nothing will now put the genie BACK in the bottle. The database exists the power of publishers as possessors of that POTENTIAL database is gone, broken forever by the reality of Google Books. Search there and you’ll see its amazing capacities even if only partly, and in a hampered way, realised.

You may not think that this is important but it has created a database that publishers do not:

    a) control
    b) understand and
    c) know how to profit from

If publishers had been involved in the creation of such a database they might have built in any number of changes, made any number of demands and would in any case have had different interests from each other, so much so that they probably would never have made this a reality (and why should they if does not benefit them?). But now they are presented with a fait accompli and one that, even with a settlement, leaves them disadvantaged and with a database that hardly favours them.

Maybe these things are their just deserts, perhaps you feel they have created this situation by failing to move with the times and invest in technology and rights databases, but this series is designed to take the publishers viewpoint and from that perspective, those three things are very worrisome indeed and justify some fear, regardless of the historical reasons for their existence.

Fearing the potential

Any sensible publisher, though, reserves their real fear for the potential of Google and its database. Google are very well placed to benefit from every digital trend you can envisage. The massive textual database they have built compliments this in innumerable ways. Mobile results can be enriched with tourist info from books, history texts and restaurant reviews, not to mention news stories from newspaper and magazine publishers (as if any content producer will escape). What is more so much of the database will contain books that singly have little of value but as a whole collection and cross-referenced are worth considerable sums (public domain works, government publications and the like).

The database brings the reality of competition with EVERY SINGLE BOOK EVER PUBLISHED into sharp focus for publishers as new books face increased real challenges from books published 10, 20, 300 years ago and in every conceivable context, on a phone, laptop, desk computer, iPad, iPod, wi-fi enable device, anything that connects to the cloud and has a screen (not to mention an increase in POD). So if the web enabled a flood of amateur (and let’s face it not always terribly good) content, Google’s books database enables a flood of real professional content that rings true with quality and which at a time when being published was harder than it is now has the stamp of publishers approval. This onslaught threatens directly the lifeblood of all publishing, the new book trade, in ways that all publishers rightly fear.

The potential of Google Books is that by supplying information from a vast accessible anywhere database you reduce the overall demand for new or fresh paid content. What’s even more frightening is that Google is a private company and access to that enormous database will be, for all intents and purposes, at their whim.

How do you like them apples? Well, as a publisher, I don’t like them much, but as William James said: “acceptance of what has happened is the first step to overcoming the consequences of any misfortune.”

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Things Publishers Fear: # 1 ~ Amazon

About This Series
Things Publishers Fear is an occasional series about the realities of publishing in the modern era. For the record, survival is not guaranteed, nor is it always deserved.


2010_01_08_amazon_1
Creative Commons License photo credit: dsearls

No 1 ~ AMAZON

Despite the seeming victory of Macmillan in its battle to force Amazon to accept the new “agency model” publishers have a sensible fear of Amazon. Like all businesses that sell their goods to consumers through intermediaries, publishers are forced to subject themselves and their products to the requests and “suggestions” of the retailer.

Amazon controls a large portion of the online consumer connection to books. They may not be the best at this, but they are surely the biggest. They have been on top of pretty much every trend in publishing for some time:

    They have exceptional efficiencies in terms of distribution and sales (both in terms of ebooks and print books), the kind of efficiencies that publishers could never equal. Operations, operations, operations. If you can ship faster and cheaper you have an advantage over your rivals. What publisher could afford to build out a Whispernet for ebook delivery?

    They are organised by category and could easily spin out niche based sales sites (and could afford to pay for content to go with that and attract attention) if they chose. If this doesn’t concern you ask yourself if Tor.com is viable if Amazon spins out a sales site with masses of author or for hire content built around the Sci-fi & Fantasy genres?

    They have a powerful presence in Print on Demand and Self Publishing. You think that’s not that amazing witness the small scale gold rush that has been emerging over the last six months as established publishers see future profit and less authorial and consumer concern in Self Publishing. Mick Rooney has an interesting Guest column addressing some of these points over at Irish Publishing News.

    With the launch in 2009 of Amazon Encore, Amazon is officially and finally a publisher. That Encore is currently modest hardly matters, they could easily scale that effort very rapidly if they chose and because it need not support the massive legacy costs that the bigger publishers need to, they require much more modest sales results per title and much less working capital per title. Oh and in 2010 they have already announced 9 titles all of which will be out by April 2010. I expect to see many more before the year is out.

So while a victory on the ebook pricing model seems like a step forward for publishers in may ways it represents a funny one. The “Agency Model” actually means Amazon will now profit from each sale whereas up until now, for new releases, it was losing money. So Amazon stands to make more money per unit of a new release sold, but less for backlist titles and non-new releases. But it moves the goal posts by removing the key selling point for the Kindle, the $9.99 new release price point.

This makes it much less attractive for Amazon to deal with publishers rather than cutting them out of the equation and dealing directly with authors or even with agents. After all, they were using ebooks to sell high priced devices and even if they make more money per ebook sold it won’t compensate them for selling fewer units of the Kindle. The battle for publishers now is to retain control of that crucial relationship, the author-publisher relationship. Having already surrendered the publisher-reader relationship and knowing how difficult it will be to regain traction in that arena, to allow Amazon to insert itself between the author and the publisher would be fatal.

So, from their perspective, publishers’ fears of amazon are rational and justified. Amazon threatens to disintermediate the publishing industry using the talent the industry has nurtured and the content the industry has edited, developed, marketed and grown. That hardly seems fair does it? But then “Deserve got nuthin’ to do with it.” – Snoop

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Digital Book World

Brooklyn Bridge from Brooklyn Bridge Park
Creative Commons License photo credit: brew ha ha

I’ll be travelling for the next two weeks.

I was invited to speak on a panel at Digital Book World, an amazing and exciting conference on digital change in the world of Trade Publishing, in New York City on Tuesday 26th. I’ve decided to hang around for the second day of the conference as well.

The event is chaired by Mike Shatzkin, CEO and founder of The Idea Logical Company (an exceptionally smart man, you should be reading his blog) and by F+W Media (a very impressive company).

I’m really delighted to be taking part and especially pleased that I will be meeting so many of the people I have been discussing these topics with over the last few years. Some of them I was fortunate enough to meet when I was speaking at TOC Frankfurt and it will be fun to see them again as well.

After the conference I’ll be travelling Northwest to Chicago for some well earned rest. I’ll make scathing comparisons between how they cope with snow in Illinois and Ireland I am sure.

So, feel free to drop me a line but don’t be too surprised if the email takes a bit longer to elicit a response than normal.

Eoin

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Whither Publishing In The Twenty Teens?


“It doesn’t matter how good or bad the product is, the fact is that people don’t read anymore,” he said. “Forty percent of the people in the U.S. read one book or less last year. The whole conception is flawed at the top because people don’t read anymore.” Steve Jobs in interview with David Pogue & John Markoff of the New York Times


Maybe it’s the slew of prediction posts and the ease with which one can now review them over at George’s blog, but whatever the cause, I have been thinking about publishing, what it is, why we do it and how it has changed and how it will change over the next decade or so. Mostly that is because I plan to stay in the industry and function as a publisher, but also because I’d like to have a sense of where we are headed so I can help authors and publishers adapt to the flow of change.

The Platform
If I was to put the question in context for people I would quote the following from Paul Saffo (who is, by any analysis, a genius):

Rule: Change is never linear. Our expectations are linear, but new technologies come in “S” curves, so we routinely overestimate short-term change and underestimate long-term change. “Never mistake a clear view for a short distance.” From the Long Now Seminar: “Embracing Uncertainty: the secret to effective forecasting

Why do I quote that piece? Because people have become so used to the power of the internet and the world wide web that they tend to see it as an innovation whose impact has happened and is already understood. I think most people are wrong. The Internet IS the platform and we are still struggling to accommodate the long term implications of that.

With the proviso that access is neither free (though it is cheap as in beer) nor, for many in the world, easy (but getting easier as mobile internet spreads with mobile technology an associated and fascinating technology), the internet has made publishers out of everyone on the planet.

The means of publication and distribution have been opened up to many, many millions. Digital printing has been slowly but surely reducing the barriers to print publishing and the impact of that has been felt mostly at the bottom of the publishing ladder as self publishers flourish and wither, succeed and fail not always because of merit or flaws but with impressive determination and in large numbers. But digital PUBLISHING, using the Internet as the platform, this is quite a revolutionary thing.

It is my view that all the efforts by various parties to create ebook readers that part the reader from their hard earned cash and set up some variant of the iPod/iTunes power punch for books, are hopelessly misplaced.

Why re-create the wheel? The challange is not to invent the future (it’s here) the challenge is to make it pay and as to that, I spotted a great description of where we are over on David Worlock’s blog (another very smart man, who I have seen speak previously but never realised he has a blog) last week and I think it offers a clear vision:

We are working within a new continuum, every technology we will use in the next 15 years has already been invented and patented, and what remains to be seen is only the way in which consumers react to which combinations of hardware/software/content to solve which problems in what contexts. And nothing is lost by experimentation.

What This Means For Us?
This reality though has several disconcerting elements:

    1) Value is flowing out of traditional print cash-cows as the economics of those markets change. This is especially clear to newspaper publishers, magazine publishers and to hardback imprints. I suspect that paperback imprints will begin to feel the pressure from the web much more keenly in 2010-2011. This will happen as more heavy book buyers begin to engage with web reading driven as they will be by more mobile access (especially when Google Editions launches) and better, more compelling offers from technology companies and publishers.

    2) Total value is spreading across a lot more players. In some cases this is driving revenue per unit towards zero as competition drives down the value of each individual piece of information or content. As players with little hope of getting paid anyway charge little or nothing for their content, the overall value of the market is reduced.

    3) The emerging supply chain structure does not favour content oriented companies who do not have scale and efficient ways of delivering that content cost-effectively or a specialist niche that makes their content more valuable. If you are not one of the newly emerging content power houses like Demand Media (Some thoughts on demand: PoynterReadWriteWebWired) unless you don’t charge the economic cost of your content, in which case you are lifestyle business, or your content has another purpose than making you money directly. On the other hand, there is no new normal and the supply chain will surely be a web rather than a chain, with room for all kinds of innovative structures.

    4) As the volume of content explodes, the average quality drops. This seems to me incontestable, if only because many people are not good writers and many more are only mediocre at best. I do not exclude myself from these groups. This will provide opportunity.

    5) Most people will not make money from content.

Do I Have Any Predictions?
A few but they are not confined to 2010:

    1) Ultimately ebooks and ereaders will fail in favour of access to content paid or free over the internet, perhaps through apps on multi-use devices. That content will be text, graphics, video, audio, games and maybe new formats I’ve never even thought of it, won’t really matter, what will matter is what the customer wants to spend their attention (and possibly money) on.

    2) At some point, ISPs will be forced to share more of the money they are making in the back of all this content with the content producers, just like they have been forced to by ESPN (Wired story). It amazes me that they have escaped this for so long.

    3) Quality and curation will deliver rewards (so firing editors may be self-defeating) in the long-term, if you survive the shakeout. Given the proliferation of poorly written/created content, acknowledged quality will be a valuable feature as will good filtering capabilities (as we can already see).

    4) Survival is by no means certain for publishers, because the system does not EXPLICITLY need us to operate, we need to create a new ecosphere or at the very least a new reason for existing. I don’t think this is impossible. For an interesting analysis of how supply chains change and adapt read this article by Paul Saffo.

    5) Big authors and small authors will become vibrant self-publishers in digital and print, the middle ranks of writers will suffer frustration and pain as they exceed small ambitions only to have their larger dreams dashed on the mountain of content and the inability to scale it (I say writers but I believe this will be true of everyone who creates content of any type).

This may seem gloomy, and perhaps it is, but facing the facts of the digital revolution in the face put you in a better position to think strategically about how to react and how to change. Failure to change has only one outcome and I don’t believe that extinction would be to my liking.


Eoin


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Irish Publishing News Graduates To Its Own Site

So I finally pushed Irish Publishing News to its own site: www.IrishPublishingNews.com

I liked the experimenting and I’ve figured out a few things:

1) There are less blogs about books and publishing in Ireland than you’d think (if I’m missing some, let me know)
2) One widget is better than six widgets (Less is more)
3) Design is important but function is nicer
4) Most things can be built in Wordpress and for free!

Still, I’m sure this iteration will be an experiment much like the others! In the meantime, check out the new site here and let me know what you think!
Eoin

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Resolving the RSS Issue

When you seek on the Internet, you generally shall find!

Not having an RSS feature on the page was a bit too much for me to handle I think, especially as I have raised an eyebrow to those without it in the past, It’s not that it will put someone off reading the first time, but it does reduce the likelihood of return visits.

So, with the help of Page2Rss.com the you can now get the RSS Feed for Irish Publishing News here.

Of course this is a far from perfect solution and it’s slow, but it sure improves the access.

Let me know how it feels,
Eoin

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The Deficiencies – Irish Publishing News

This is an interesting experiment to be honest. So far I have figured the NEED for the following:

1) An RSS feed for the page (this will be resolved when I move to a stand alone platform)
2) An archive
3) Proper seach capacities
4) Some kind of submission tool for readers to send in links

Anyone know a better plugin that does those things?

Eoin

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Irish Publishing News

Yesterday I launched a new project on Green Lamp Media’s site, Irish Publishing News. It is a news aggregator of Irish publishers, authors, newspapers and other organisations in the book industry.

It is far from perfect and needs more hand crafting than I’d like on a daily basis, but with some fine tuning over the next few weeks, I hope to create a really useful resource for anyone interested in Irish Publishing.

I’d welcome input from any quarter on how to develop it further. If this first iteration works, I intend to put the full version live on its own website.

Eoin
Green Lamp Media


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Digital Developments – A follow up

I very much enjoyed the Digital Development’s seminar in Tallaght Library on 28 November. It was quite a daunting prospect for me as I had never spoken on my own for that long before, but people were very nice!

The panel discussion was great and I met some fascinating people during the breaks. Thanks to all the panelist who really brought commitment and great perspective to the discussion.

The great people at Children’s Books Ireland have now put the transcript and audio podcasts of the entire event.

I don’t like the sound of my own voice (at least not when hearing a recording of it!) but there is a lot in the discussion to ponder. Like this:

The main thing about this digital change and the thing we have to remember is that this is just part of a much bigger shift in society as a whole. And that is a shift that is engendered by cheaper technology. The technology, the cost of technology is dropping at a rapid rate.

And, not to blow my own trumpet:

I think ebooks is too restrictive a term. I think words, as opposed to synonym, because we are not in that game, words read on a screen is growing and will continue to grow. Whether that screen is these yolks (iphones) or those yolks (computers) is pretty immaterial at this point; it will be both.

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